With a little more than a month to go in the 2014 election, it appears that the Republican Party will win control of the Senate and maintain control of the House of Representatives. Two important factors seem to be too great to overcome, one factor is that in off-year elections after a Presidential election, the political party out of power wins seats in the House and in the Senate. The second important factor that can not be discounted is that in the contested Senate races, the President did miserably in those states in the 2012 election. President Obama only received around 46% of the vote.
Many southern states hold the key in this upcoming election and Republicans are now favored to win in Louisiana, Arkansas. Republicans need to pick up 6 seats to gain control. Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota are states where Republicans are heavily favored to win, which means that all they need to do is to pick up 3 more seats and with the tide turning in Arkansas and Louisiana against the incumbent Democrats, the odds of Democrats maintaining the Senate become much longer.
What is worse is that in the heavily Republican state of Alaska, the Republican challenger is now favored to win. In what is now a nightmare scenario Democrats are now running behind in Iowa and in Colorado. The one saving grace is the surprise race in Kansas, where the independent candidate is a slight favorite to unseat Republican Senator Roberts.
The big-time predictors of these elections, Nate Silver and Wang of Princeton now expect the final results to be 51 Republican seats to 49 for the Democrats. We still have 5 weeks to go til election day, but let us be honest, things do not look good for Democrats as far as keeping control in the U.S. Senate. Democrats stand a much better chance of picking up Governorships, but as far as Congress is concerned things look bleak.
It will be interesting to see if the President now picks up his veto pin for the next 2 years and if Republicans just plan on continuing with the same do nothing strategy or will they gin up legislation that they know won’t be passed just to feed red meat to their die-hard followers as we march towards the 2016 Presidential election. Will the Republicans trot out an impeachment effort? History is in the making and things just seem to be getting crazier and crazier in the world and here at home.