THE SUMMER OF 2015, THE DONALD AND BERNIE SHOW

Well, my fellow Americans, August has lived up to it’s advanced billing, the month when you can expect the unexpected. You would think from the media, the only people running for President were THE DONALD and Bernie Sanders, a senator from that wondrously liberal state of Vermont. August has been a boon to Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. But the race to the White House has only just begun.

Now for some hard facts! If you have been watching the large crowds, they have been overwhelmingly white. One would think that these two gentlemen were running to be the winner, the champion, of the white vote. Donald Trump’s supporters tend to be high school graduates or less or white suburbanites who are white and waiting for theirs. These white voters are angry and frustrated and their perception is that THE OTHERS have gotten theirs, and now they want financial benefits for the white folks. Trump may very well do well in the primaries and in the caucuses but until his percentage of the vote increases, it is hard to imagine he or any of the other candidates getting enough votes to be the nominee.

Let me explain, between now and the end of the day of March 15, 2016, none of the elections held for the Republican nominee are winner take all. Twenty four of these contests will take place by the key date in March. After that date a state may choose to have their primary or caucus be winner take all, of the delegates. How is anyone going to get the required numbers to be the nominee of the Republican Party if none of them can get more than 25% of the vote? Another reason for the odds being in favor of a long drawn out campaign with no clear winner is the existence of SUPERPACS.  With the huge number of candidates, who for many, money seems to be no problem they can stay in the race until the bitter end thinking that lightning might strike at a potentially brokered convention. Money is still the mother’s milk of politics folks. For the moment we are looking at a convention where the nomination is still up for grabs. Keep you television on, because who knows what will happen?

The sad news for the moment is that the engaging campaign of Bernie Sanders may have peaked. Nate Silver who is no slouch in the prediction of election outcomes, has stated that Hillary Clinton has a 85% probability of being the nominee. Unless or until Senator Sanders can catch fire with minority voters, it will be a long campaign season.

For myself this is particularly sad because I agree with him on everything he talked about when he was in Los Angeles the other night. But you see, I fit his demographic, I am white and college educated as well as a progressive on most issues.

For years, the former Senator, Hillary Clinton has built up support among the party elite as well as with some of the basic Democratic voting blocs. Women who eagerly await the first election of a woman as President of the Unites States as well as Latino voters and African American voters are still in her corner. An additional point is that there still are super delegates at Conventions and Hillary has worked hard and long for their endorsements and their support at the Democratic Convention.

Southern states with the exception of Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina are still safely in the Republican column. The Midwest with states like Nebraska and Kansas are still dependable Republican wins. But and that is a big but, what about the states where minorities make up a large portion of the vote and where women just might be a little bit angry. Voters will remember what has been said during the primary season. Republicans seem intent on losing more and more of the votes of women and minorities, not just Latino and Black votes but Asian votes as well.

A word to the wise for the angry voters out there who rightfully do not understand why nothing gets done. As Jefferson once said you get the government you deserve. The establishment candidates who you have voted for in the past were only concerned with maintaining the status quo. If you want to change things make sure you vote for people who will compromise and be pragmatic. Principled elected representatives are guaranteed to make sure that nothing changes because of their excess partisanship and extremism. For the ideologues compromise is a dirty word.

Madison has warned us about why Republics die. And guess what, partisanship caused the end of every Republic in history and we are witnessing the demise of our government now dur to the failure to change things incrementally? We only have ourselves to blame for gridlock.

Remember the movie with Spencer Tracey, “The Last Hurrah,” this election may very well spell the end of white dominated power politics. This will be the Republican Party”s swan song with an ever increasing non-white vote.

So my fellow white Americans enjoy the ride, the E-Ride of old Disneyland days, while it lasts. By the end of the day, we will be walking back home in a forlorn mood, looking back at the day when things were different, and predictable. It is a new world out there.

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